Monday, January 13, 2014

2014 Predictions

I love New Years because it is the one time of year when experts seem to throw caution to the wind and make wild predictions about asset prices.  Of course, most of these predictions will be wrong because as Yogi Berra famously said "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."  But nevertheless it is fun to see how the experts view the market over the coming year.  So without further ado, here are the asset price predictions I scraped from around the internet:

Looking back at energy prices in 2013:

2014 Energy Price Predictions:
  • Oil: EIA: Down 4%
  • Oil: Survey of 27 experts: Down 4%
  • Oil: Eurasia Group: "a-better-than 50% chance...oil prices are cratering through $80": Down 25%
  • Oil: Credit Suisse: Down 5%
  • Oil: Chris Nelder: Up 3%
  • Natural Gas: EIA: Up 4%
  • Natural Gas: Chris Nelder: Flat
  • Coal: EIA: Up 1%
  • Solar: IHS: Down 10%
  • Solar: NPD Solarbuzz: Down 6%
  • Solar: GTM Research: Down 1%

Looking back at various asset class investments in 2013:

2014 Asset Class Predictions:
  • US Equities: Average forecast according to Bloomberg: Up 6%
  • US Equities: Goldman Sachs: Up 3%
  • US Equities: Goldman Sachs: "The S&P500 Is Now Overvalued By Almost Any Measure"
  • US Equities: Scott Minerd, Guggenheim Partners: "can  rise another 10% to 15% before it pulls back"
  • US Equities:  Peter Boockvar, Lindsey Group: Down 20%
  • US Equities: Emad Mostaque, NOAH Capital Markets: Down 20%
  • International Developed Equities:
  • Emerging Market Equities: Jan Dehn, Ashmore: "It is entirely possible that emerging markets will be the best performing asset class in the world [this year].”
  • Emerging Market Equities: George Magnus, UBS: “Emerging markets have a lot to worry about from a resurgent dollar”
  • Emerging Market Equities: Anatole Kaletsky: "Emerging markets will make a comeback"
  • Emerging Market Equities: Jeremy Grantham: "“My guess is that the US market, especially the non-blue-chips, will work its way higher, perhaps by 20-30 per cent in the next year or, more likely, two years, with the rest of the world, including emerging market equities, covering even more ground in at least a partial catch-up. And then we will have the third in the series of serious market busts since 1999."
  • Emerging Market Equities: Mohamed El-Erian: "Do not bet on a broad emerging market recovery"
  • US Bonds: LPL Financial Research: "Bond valuations remain expensive compared to historical averages"
  • US Bonds: Bill Gross: "should provide low but attractively defensive returns"
  • US Bonds: Bank of America: "Challenging year for fixed income"
  • US Bonds: Jeffrey Rosenberg, Blackrock: "Traditional bonds could experience losses"
  • International Bonds: Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs: Bearish
  • Gold: Emad Mostaque, NOAH Capital Markets: Up 20%
  • Gold: Bank of America: Down 11%
  • Gold: Barclays: Down 3%
  • Gold: Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank: prices have "bottomed out"
  • Gold: Philip Klapwijk, Precious Metals Insights: Down 2.5%
  • Silver: Bank of America: Down 21%
  • Bitcoin: Jason Hamlin: Up 250%
  • Bitcoin: Jason Hamlin (contradicting himself?): Up 500%
  • Bitcoin: Lightspeed Venture Partners: Up 500%
  • Bitcoin: "56% of bitcoiners": Up 1000%
  • Bitcoin: Cameron Winklevoss: Up 4000%
  • Bitcoin: Hugh Hendry: "I would buy Bitcoin if I could"
  • Bitcoin: Mark T. Williams: Down 99%
  • Bitcoin: Oliver Pursche: "bites the dust"
  • Bitcoin:  Lauren Orsini: "the end of Bitcoin as we know it"